As summer 2025 comes to a close, global logistics is shifting under weak air and ocean freight rates, new tariffs, and emerging trade strategies. On the Atlantic, carriers are holding back on cutting capacity even as rates lose money. In Europe, DHL Germany has halted U.S. parcel services as tariffs expand to all imports.
Across the Pacific, container prices have dropped to near pre-Red Sea crisis levels, exposing how tariffs and excess capacity distort demand. Domestically, the trucking sector is under new scrutiny as the U.S. blocks work visas for foreign drivers and enforces stricter licensing rules.
Meanwhile, e-commerce brands are turning to foreign-trade zones (FTZs) to delay tariffs and protect their cash flow. This edition of our newsletter reviews how carriers, regulators, and shippers are adapting to the changing landscape.
Trans-Atlantic Carriers Delay Capacity Cuts
Westbound spot rates remain stuck at $1,600 per FEU, far below the $2,100 break-even point. Yet carriers, led by MSC and the Gemini partnership (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd), have cut little capacity — just 7,349 TEUs in September, even as supply is set to rise 2%. Analysts say blank sailings are now used more for schedule reliability than demand control.
Market shares are shifting: MSC has climbed to 41.8%, while Hapag-Lloyd has slipped to 14.9%. Reliability has improved slightly, from 24% in January to 38% in July, though congestion lingers. A July trade deal capped tariffs on most EU goods to 15%, down from a threatened 30%, but muted demand keeps shippers cautious.
DHL Germany Suspends US Parcels Ahead of New Duties
DHL Parcel Germany has paused business shipments to and from the U.S., citing new customs rules. DHL Express remains available; however, standard parcels are suspended with no restart date scheduled. Gift parcels under $100 between individuals are exempt.
The move follows U.S. policy changes effective August 29 that scrap the $800 de minimis threshold and place duties on all imports. Austrian Post and Belgium’s Bpost have announced similar suspensions.
Trans-Pacific Rates Near Pre-Crisis Levels
Asia-U.S. West Coast rates have fallen 8% to $1,940 per FEU, and East Coast rates have dropped 3% to $3,472. Prices are now near pre-Red Sea crisis levels, despite continued disruptions. A temporary U.S. tariff cut on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% sparked a June surge above $6,000 per FEU, but demand has since cooled.
A 90-day tariff extension may trigger another peak, but the market is divided. Asia-Europe demand is stronger, yet rates remain 60% below last year, with North Europe steady at $3,300 per FEU and the Mediterranean at $3,100 per FEU.
US Blocks Work Visas for Foreign Truck Drivers
The Trump administration has halted issuing work visas for foreign truck drivers, citing concerns over safety and labor. The move follows a Florida crash involving an undocumented driver that killed three people.
New rules also enforce English proficiency, with inspectors allowed to sideline drivers who fail language tests. Industry groups support the visa freeze, advocating for stricter licensing and oversight. Nineteen states that issue licenses to undocumented immigrants face added scrutiny.
Foreign-Trade Zones Gain Momentum as De Minimis Ends
With the U.S. ending the de minimis rule August 29, e-commerce brands are moving inventory into foreign-trade zones (FTZs) to manage tariff costs. FTZs, established in 1934, allow companies to defer duties until goods are shipped to customers or to consolidate tariffs on finished goods.
ShipBob COO Divey Gulati emphasized the advantages of bonded warehouses, including indefinite storage and weekly duty filings. Apparel and beauty brands, once reliant on duty-free shipments, are now turning to FTZs to delay tariffs and protect cash flow as cross-border e-commerce adapts.
Simplify Shipping With COGISTICS Transportation
Tariffs may have a negative impact on your supply chains and shipping operations, or they may not. However, they have ushered in uncertain times. With COGISTICS Transportation, you can ensure clarity even in a complex trade and logistics landscape. And that becomes your competitive advantage.
Leveraging more than 30 years of expertise, we provide innovative, technology-driven logistics solutions and expedited freight by land, air, and sea — around the clock, around the world. Connect with us today to ship with ease in these volatile times.
