Surely you’ve heard, it’s in all the papers. Tariffs flying back and forth have fueled a trade war with China that has engulfed the global economy, upsetting the delicate balance of supply chains and fomenting a climate of uncertainty.
On top of that, a new executive order from President Trump has mandated that all CDL license holders be able to pass an English proficiency test. While the move is being applauded by the trucking sector as a way to improve highway safety, it will invariably thin the ranks of drivers. The FMCSA is also expanding the electronic logging device (ELD) mandate to trucks with engines built before 2000.
The Trump tariffs and the regulatory updates underscore the need for shippers to have greater network flexibility and visibility. Agile logistics solutions will help them remain competitive and compliant in a time of seismic market changes.
Tariff Turbulence: A Cost Shock to Trade
The Trump administration’s 145% tariff on goods imported from China had a devastating effect on that country’s economy, as China looked to make up for the falloff in U.S. exports by selling products domestically. But that drive deflation through massive discounting to incent Chinese consumers, creating a downward spiral.
With massive front-loading of U.S. inventories ahead of the tariffs now behind us, freight volumes have been falling, impacting rates and forcing carriers to pull back capacity even further (subscription required). The freight recession, now entering its fourth year, may be pushed into 2026. The Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index, which fell to 75.7 in Q4, is expected to drop even further for Q1.
The drop in freight volume has led to an increase in “mini bids” from shippers to hedge against pricing volatility in this market versus committing to yearlong contracts. Having fixed lanes and rigid carrier engagements become financial liabilities for shippers when tariffs cause wild swings in landed costs.
On the spot market side, DAT Freight & Analytics reports that spot load posts were down 2.6% for the week ended May 4, while truckload posts were up 2%. This indicates supply running ahead of demand after the front-loading falloff. Still, van spot rates managed to climb 0.5% for the week as carriers maintained pricing power through culling capacity.
Regulatory Ripples: Beyond Tariffs
Trump’s English Language Proficiency (ELP) mandate for CDL holders, while seen by carrier associations as a positive move, can’t help but impact driver numbers. In 2014, the last year that ELP was part of the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA) criteria for removing drivers from service, more than 100,000 violations were found.
Possible updates to FMCSA safety and HOS regulations in 2025 include tying violations to individual drivers, which in turn impact carrier safety scores, increasing accountability and rewarding safer drivers.
Other regulatory changes and enforcement actions are having a major impact on logistics and supply chain. Joint operations this spring between the U.S. Coast Guard and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) at the Port of New York and New Jersey found significant hazmat violations among undeclared cargo, putting importers on notice.
And the May 2 elimination of the $800 de minimis tariff exemption for imported goods means not only a major hit to U.S. sales for Chinese exporters like Temu and Shein but also taxed CPB agents who now have to step up inspection efforts on formerly exempt imports.
The bottom line: Increased regulatory complexity and tariff fallout demands that shippers create adaptable logistics processes, not one-size-fits-all checklists.
What Agile Logistics Means Today
How should shippers respond? In most cases, what is required goes well beyond the logistical expertise of most companies. This is where an experienced 3PL is worth its weight in gold, applying deep industry knowledge and technical expertise to help formulate a winning strategy.
In 2025, true logistics agility blends four core capabilities, and their component tools:
Real‑time visibility software delivers end‑to‑end tracking and predictive alerts so you can spot disruptions before they snowball.
Dynamic capacity management through integrating a cloud-native TMS with a digital freight platform gives you on‑demand access to multiple carriers and intermodal routes, enabling rapid mode shifts to counteract rate fluctuations.
Built‑in compliance via a rules-based policy engine framework automates tariff code validation and digital driver credentialing, ensuring every shipment meets evolving regulations.
Modular networks, combining TMS, rate shopping software and digital freight marketplaces, let you reconfigure lanes, rate agreements, and carrier rosters on the fly, turning unpredictability into opportunity.
Five Strategies to Mitigate Tariff and Regulatory Risk
Here in brief are five risk mitigation strategies that can help shippers deal with the effects of tariff and regulatory challenges:
Dynamic Routing and Mode Shifting
Predictive analytics allow you to pivot between ocean, rail, and truck based on live cost and lead time data. This approach lets you bypass high‑tariff lanes via intermodal hubs, smoothing out tariff-related cost spikes.
Network Diversification
Cultivate partnerships in low‑tariff regions such as Southeast Asia or Mexico, and maintain a bench of English‑proficient, certified drivers for cross-border commerce. A diversified network prevents capacity shortages if one region faces new controls.
Technology‑Enabled Compliance
Automate tariff‑code validation within your TMS to match current duty schedules. Digital credentialing platforms can instantly verify driver language proficiency, licensing, and safety certifications, avoiding last‑minute disqualifications at the gate.
Flexible Contracting Models
Negotiate short‑term, adjustable rate agreements that can ramp up or down as volumes fluctuate. Capacity‑as‑a‑service programs let you tap additional trucks only when needed, avoiding the financial straitjacket of long‑term commitments.
Integrated Collaboration Platforms
Shared portals linking shippers, carriers, and customs brokers facilitate secure document exchange and real-time alerts. Exception management workflows automatically trigger contingency plans such as rerouting lanes or flipping to an alternate carrier in response to things like tariff changes or inspection delays.
With Turbulence Ahead, Agility, Reliability at a Premium
Supply chains and logistics have been dramatically impacted by trade policy and regulatory changes under the new administration. While there will hopefully be long-term gains in terms of a more level playing field and gains in American productivity and commerce, there is certainly plenty of short-term pain.
This is why it’s critical for shippers to pursue agile strategies that position them to react quickly and decisively, lessening the bottom-line impact while keeping inbound freight and outbound orders flowing.
With more than a quarter century of experience, COGISTICS Transportation offers 3PL solutions that combine agility, efficiency, regulatory expertise, and cutting-edge technology. Our advanced tools provide peace of mind on every shipment with order-to-door tracking and 24/7 support for critical manufacturing needs. We provide custom solutions across land, air, and ocean freight operations, including time-sensitive expedited freight. In a time of market turbulence, COGISTICS Transportation offers reliable, cost-effective service and expert guidance. Contact us today to get started.
