The current freight cycle isn’t following the usual playbook. The tariff roller coaster is forcing logistics teams to react rather than plan. With a key August deadline looming for U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, the entire freight ecosystem is resetting schedules, rates, and priorities.
Carriers are cutting sailings, smaller ports are losing cargo, and drayage firms are caught in pricing wars. Even air freight is slipping following a solid year that saw record freight and volumes. Here are some of the freight flashpoints shaping the second half of 2025 and what they signal about the future of U.S. logistics.
Carriers Slash Trans-Pacific Sailings Ahead of Tariff Deadline
Ocean freight carriers are canceling sailings as the U.S. tariff pause on Chinese imports ends August 12. July’s blanked sailings hit 175,000 TEUs, which is 11% of capacity, up from 9% in June. For all intents and purposes, front-loading is over, and demand in Southeast Asia is weak. Carriers such as OOCL, CMA CGM, and Cosco are reducing sailings, even on high-volume lanes.
Rates are falling fast, and spot prices that held near $2,500 are now quoted as low as $1,700. “There’s no pickup in demand,” said Freight Right CEO Robert Khachatryan, while 365 Logistics’ Sanjay Tejwani noted that U.S. importers have mostly front-loaded goods already and will simply trickle in product as needed through the rest of the year.
Tejwani contended that even if the tariffs were to drop back to zero, a lot of merchandise had already been shipped with inventory levels adequate, reducing the possibility of shippers bringing in more cargo. Carriers are trying to cut supply before rates collapse, but shippers are holding back amid policy uncertainty.
Tariff Whiplash Stalls Imports, Wrecks Peak Season Planning
Unpredictable tariffs are paralyzing import schedules. The May tariff pause briefly boosted China’s exports, but volumes fell again in April (−8%) and May (−15%), according to Container Trade Statistics. Shippers are now placing only must-have orders, abandoning traditional peak season buying cycles.
Capacity is misaligned, and orders are shifting fast. But vessel assignments lag by weeks. Analyst Lars Jensen expects more “short, sharp” spikes followed by sudden drops. With rules in flux, importers are pulling back, and carriers are left chasing moving targets.
Drayage Hits Breaking Point as Costs Rise and Rates Fall
Drayage firms are under pressure from all sides. Operating costs are rising — driven by fuel transitions, labor, and new emissions regulations, while rates continue to fall under pressure from tech brokers and an oversupply of capacity.
“The lowest price wins,” said Matt Schrap of the Harbor Trucking Association. A $50 rate gap can lose a customer, said RoadOne’s Ken Kellaway. The recent collapse of GSC Enterprises sent shockwaves through the industry. Small fleets (under 50 trucks) are most at risk, often sold off or squeezed out. And then there are California’s new mandates, which only stress an already strained market.
“Bankruptcies may be the wake-up call,” warned Kellaway.
Secondary Ports Lose Volume as Shippers Consolidate
Smaller ports, such as Oakland, Jacksonville, and New Orleans, are losing scheduled calls as freight shifts to larger hubs. The Port of Oakland’s container traffic dropped 10.1% month over month in June and 13% year over year. Seattle, Tacoma, and Baltimore saw even sharper declines. Meanwhile, the Port of LA hit record highs.
Trucking from smaller ports is often more expensive and less efficient, so shippers are consolidating to reduce costs and expedite turns. ITS Logistics says this trend will continue. In Wilmington, North Carolina, Gov. Josh Stein called for tariff stability: “Businesses need certainty.”
Air Freight Loses Momentum as Tariff Fears Weigh Down Demand
Air cargo rates are falling as demand softens and uncertainty grows. June’s global spot rate dropped 4% year over year to $2.50 per kilogram. Southeast Asia-U.S. lanes fell 11% to $4.79/kg, even as Northeast Asia edged up.
Xeneta reported demand rose 3% in H1 2025, but the second half looks weaker. Shippers are shortening contracts, midterm tenders are up 8 points, and spot market use remains high at 46%. Tariff fears are driving the hesitation. As Xeneta’s Niall van de Wouw put it, “The market is losing altitude amidst so much uncertainty.”
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