The global logistics sector is expected to remain turbulent through the second half of 2025. Tariffs, capacity shifts, and changing trade patterns continue to disrupt supply chains. Ocean freight carriers are working to slow the decline in spot rates, while air cargo networks reset after a tariff-fueled surge.
Cross-border investment, especially along the U.S.-Mexico corridor, is being reconsidered. For retailers, manufacturers, and restaurants, higher duties now feel like a permanent problem, forcing price changes, exemption requests, and supply chain redesigns. And U.S. ports face sharp year-end declines after summer front-loading.
Carriers Slow Trans-Pacific Rates Decline
Spot rates on the Far East-U.S. trade lane have stabilized after steep drops. As of early August, the West Coast average was $2,098 per FEU (down 3% since July 31), and the East Coast was $3,311 (down 9%), after earlier falls of 62% and 53%, respectively, since June.
Carriers nearly doubled blank sailings from 30,000 to 57,000 TEUs per week to rein in capacity, stabilizing rates but adding congestion at major Chinese ports. Far East-Europe prices have flattened, with $3,330 per FEU to North Europe and $3,372 to the Mediterranean, the narrowest spread in years. Overcapacity and weak demand are expected to keep rates under pressure.
Air Cargo Faces Overcapacity After Shipping Surge
A July export surge from tariff front-loading left carriers with excess capacity as demand cooled. Global air volume rose 5% in July, driven more by tariff timing than real trade strength. Rates fell on many lanes, including a 16% decrease year over year from Southeast Asia to North America; Taiwan bucked the trend (up 9%) on AI and chip demand.
E-commerce retains a major part of air freight operations, making up more than half of Hong Kong’s lift, yet China-to-U.S. e-commerce exports dropped 44% in July. The de minimis executive order, effective August 29, will impose tariffs on all low-value imports, which is likely to soften demand further.
NRF Sees Imports Dropping 5.6% as Tariffs Take Hold
The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects 2025 containerized imports at 24.1 million TEUs in 2025 (down 5.6% year over year), near pre-pandemic levels. First-half volumes rose 3.6% on the tariff front-loading front, but monthly declines are expected from August on, with September-December forecast to be down 19-21% year over year.
July reached 2.2 million TEUs, and August is forecast at 2.3 million TEUs as importers rushed to beat tariff deadlines. NRF said tariffs are raising consumer prices and squeezing small businesses and urged duty-reducing agreements. Ben Hackett noted that holiday inventories will be in place by September, leaving U.S. exporters exposed to retaliation and unsold goods abroad.
DSV Pauses US-Mexico Border Expansion
DSV has halted planned border investments and a trucking expansion due to cooling cross-border growth amid tariffs. After acquiring DB Schenker in April, DSV reported a 15% increase in Q2 operating profit to $722 million, but is awaiting clearer U.S. policy with Mexico before embarking on further expansion along the U.S.-Mexico border.
The pause follows years of expansion, including doubling border warehousing and tripling the size of the Brownsville, Texas, site. Mexico was the United States’ largest trading partner in 2024, at $840 billion, but growth in 2025 has slowed after a 90-day tariff extension on key goods, signaling a shift in some auto production to the U.S.
Tariffs Force Price Hikes and Supply Chain Shifts
New tariffs, which took effect August 7, are prompting companies to front-load near-term investments and redesign their networks long term. The NRF warned of higher prices, slower hiring, and a drag on innovation. Some large retailers have held prices; others, like Stanley Black & Decker, raised them, and Walmart has warned of increases.
The National Restaurant Association estimates a 30% tariff on food and beverage imports from Mexico and Canada could cost $15.16 billion and urges exemptions for USMCA-compliant goods. Ongoing trade talks and fresh Section 232 probes add risk, and the industry is calling for a stable policy to restore momentum.
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