The freight industry is once again in flux. While a brief easing of U.S.–China tariffs and a de-escalation of the trade war bring much relief for businesses in both countries, it is increasingly proving to be double-edged. For example, the easing of tariffs and trade war has ignited rate spikes and container shortages across Asia.
Ports in China are now backed up, while U.S. manufacturers and carriers face volatile demand and costly price pressures. From containerized ocean freight to heavy-duty truck orders, each segment of global supply chain operations feels the weight of inconsistent trade policy and market fragility.
Then, there is the potential trade war with the EU, for which stakeholders in the industry are also bracing. Could it happen, and what are the consequences? Continue reading this edition of our collaborative newsletter to find out the top stories and insights shaping the freight world.
Tariff-Driven Cargo Rush Strains China Ports, Sparks Container Shortages
Following the U.S. tariff reduction on China from 145% to 30% for 90 days, a surge in bookings has triggered port congestion and container shortages across China. Vessels now face three- to seven-day delays at Shanghai and Qingdao, with Ningbo also backlogged. Lines like CMA CGM, Maersk, and HMM are rationing container access as Hapag-Lloyd reports a 50% jump in China-U.S. bookings.
Southeast Asia ports, including Vietnam and Thailand, are also seeing congestion, while major logistics providers like Kuehne + Nagel anticipate continued delays due to vessel capacity constraints.
Air Cargo Slumps as De Minimis Change Disrupts China-US E-Commerce Traffic
The May 2 rollback of the de minimis exemption caused a sharp decline in China-U.S. air cargo operations, disrupting a key lifeline for e-commerce giants like Temu and Shein. Freighter capacity dropped 8%, and spot rates, which have been high for years, fell from $7.95 per kilogram to $4.72 per kilogram by late May.
Airlines are pulling back from low-yield e-commerce and redirecting capacity to more stable markets like pharma and auto parts. With pandemic-era highs unlikely to return, it seems the air cargo sector is now entering a more volatile phase, where sustainability trumps scale.
China-US Freight Rates Surge with Tariff Pause
According to Drewry, container rates surged after the U.S.-China tariff pause, with Shanghai-New York rates rising 19% to $4,350 and Shanghai-LA jumping 16% to $3,136. Spot market capacity remains tight, and analysts expect further increases as shippers move quickly to beat the 90-day tariff window.
The Drewry World Container Index is now 57% above pre-pandemic averages, though still well below pandemic-era peaks. The sudden shift highlights how fragile capacity and pricing remain in the trans-Pacific market.
Trump Proposes 50% Tariff on EU Goods Amid Stalled Talks
President Trump has proposed a 50% tariff on imports from the European Union, citing stalled trade talks and accusing the EU of “monetary manipulation” and “unfair lawsuits.” While the duties were initially scheduled to start June 1, they have now been moved to July 9 following Trump’s phone call with Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission chief. These duties, if they land, will add to a 10% baseline and a paused 20% reciprocal tariff.
Trump also threatened a 25% tariff on Apple unless iPhone production shifts to the U.S. The European Commission has not yet responded, but the move raises the risk of wider transatlantic trade friction and retaliatory measures.
Truck Sales Plunge as Tariffs, Market Uncertainty Drag Down OEM Outlooks
Class 8 truck sales fell 9.4% year over year in Q1, with major OEMs like Daimler, Paccar, and Volvo citing weak freight demand, emissions uncertainty, and tariff-driven cost spikes. April orders collapsed 52%, and price hikes from steel and electronics tariffs forced additional job cuts, amounting to over 1,900 layoffs across VTNA, Mack, and International.
While Mack posted a 108% jump in Q1 orders, others slashed forecasts for the rest of 2025. The sector is bracing for prolonged buyer hesitation amid volatile policy and macroeconomic signals.
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